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Market Landscape and Most Probable Forecast

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The Opportunity

In mid-2021, a brand team at a mid-sized Life Sciences organization had a desire to understand the future market landscape and most probable forecast given brand investments and external market headwinds.

Our Solution

PROPENSITY4 conducted a market mapping exercise focused on:

  • Patient Profile
  • Source of Business
  • Sizing of Priority Patient Cohorts

PROPENSITY4 built a most probable forecast focused on new writing and re-writing tempered by external headwinds.

Most Probably Forecast = Statistical Baseline + Commercial Operations Assumptions – Exogenous Headwinds

The Results

Team identified drivers of performance challenges, specifically reimbursement action and challenges in the long term care (LTC) channel, and identified targeting activities to address controllable challenges.

Team documented areas to ramp in retail and LTC through increase in new writers and driving additional re-writing from existing prescribers.

Identified nearly 10,000 additional annual TRxs to be gained because of recommended changes; stemming a persistent decline in the LTC channel.